朝核变局中的美国因素

The US Factor in the Transition Period of DPRK Nuclear Issue

美国是牵动当前朝韩关系缓和等一系列半岛新变化中最主要的驱动因素。下阶段美朝乃至半岛相关关系如何演变,取决于美朝彼此意图、政治决心及相互博弈。目前看,美朝在无核化定义、实施路径及相关战略考量上有较大差距,其中美国的意志与考虑最为关键。对美而言,同时实现无核化与地区战略目标最符合其利益,但囿于其内在矛盾,无核化往往意味着其地区存在的减损。同时,无核化本身也面临诸多障碍。对中国而言,促进半岛真正实现无核化最符合自身利益,但也须为半岛可能再次陷入僵局或美朝妥协等不测预作准备。

The US has been playing the most vital role in the current détente between DPRK and ROK,which has also brought about a series of new changes revolving the whole peninsula.How the US-DPRK relationship and that of all the relevant parties evolve to the next phase will be decided by these two’s respective intention towards each other,their political resolute as well as how their game may ultimately play out.Currently there still exists a large gap between US and DPRK.For the US,to realize the goals of both denuclearization and regional predominance best serve its interests.However,there is also an inherent contradiction between these two goals,since denuclearization may signify a prospect of decrease of US military presence in the region.As for China,to promote a genuine denuclearization in peninsula conforms to China’s interest the most,but it also needs get well-prepared for such uncertainties as coming to a deadlock once again,or a compromise being reached between US and DPRK at the expense of China.