近10年沁河流域径流变化原因分析

Cause Analysis on Runoff Changes of Qinhe River Basin in Recent 10 Years

根据降雨变化及人类活动对沁河流域径流变化的影响分析,综合评判降雨变化和人类活动对沁河径流变化的影响程度。以1956—2000年为基准期、2001-2010年为影响期,分析影响期降雨变化和人类活动对沁河流域径流的影响。沁河2001—2010年平均天然径流量为10.73亿m^3,较1956—2000年均值13.39亿m^3减少了2.66亿m^3(减少19.9%)。天然径流量的减少主要受到降雨变化和人类活动两个方面的影响。结果表明:沁河流域2001—2010年河川径流量减少,降雨变化作用占19.2%,人类活动影响占80.8%。

According to the analysis of the impact of rainfall change and human activities on the runoff change in Qinhe River basin, the influence degree of rainfall change and human activities on runoff change of Qinhe River was comprehensively evaluated. Taking the year from 1956 to 2000 as the baseline period and the year from 1956 to 2000 as the influence period,the influence of the rainfall change and human activities at influence period on the runoff change in Qinhe River basin was analyzed. Qinhe River natural runoff was 1073 million m^3 in 2001—2010,which was decreased by 266 million m^3（ 19.9% reduction）,compared with the annual average 1339 million m^3 from 1956 to 2000. The decrease of natural runoff was mainly affected by rainfall change and human activities. The results show that from 2001 to 2010,the runoff in Qinhe River basin has been reduced,and the cause of rainfall change has accounted for 19.2%; the influence of human activities has accounted for 80.8%.