基于复合系统仿真的工业用水关联要素调控效应检验

Adjusted effect of industrial water associated factors based on multiplexed system simulation

在阐释"经济-资源-环境-社会"复合系统基本内涵的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立其系统仿真模型,将工业用水关联要素调控置于复合系统内进行分析,其中选取1997-2014年历史数据检验模型一致性,并分别设置了差异化的假设情景。通过对不同情景2015-2020年的趋势模拟,结果表明:维持现有工业用水趋势下可取得相对较高的经济效应,但资源与生态环境效应较为薄弱;采取控制工业经济发展速率策略时,其引发的经济效应有所下降,资源效应可得到显著改善,而生态环境效应提升潜力较大;环保技术调控可取得良好的生态环境效应,但经济与资源效应进一步降低;考虑重点调控工业用水规模的情况下,所引发的经济效应最低;而要素集成调控的整体效应相对较高,满足复合系统内各要素协调发展要求。

The basic connotation of ＂ economy-resources-environment-society＂ multiplexed system was explained,and its system simulation model was constructed by system dynamics method using the data form 1997 to 2014. Results showed that good economic effect could be raised out by maintaining current development trend,and resource effect could be significantly improved by reducing the industrial economic growth,and ecological environment effect would be higher by improving the environmental protection technology,and economic effect would be suppressed by controlling the scale of industrial water. While each single effect was not the ideal value in all of the control situations when implementing elements integrated control mode,but it was relatively appropriate choice under the view of complex system coordinated development.