土地储备、土地供应与房地产市场供应时滞关系研究——以北京市为例

Study on the Time Lag Relationship between Land Reserve,Land Supply and the Real Estate Market Supply:a Case Study of Beijing

基于土地储备与土地市场运行过程,构建土地市场调控时滞关系的理论框架,该文以北京为例,综合微观案例层面的统计分析和宏观数据层面的多项式分布滞后模型,探究土地储备调控及土地供应调控时滞关系。研究结果表明:微观案例层面,两个阶段的时间滞后关系均大致稳定在2-3年。宏观数据层面,土地储备规模与土地供应规模的时滞关系实证模型不显著,土地供应规模与房地产市场供应规模存在3年的时滞关系,且时滞期内均表现为土地供应调控时滞的正向效应。因此,在采取土地政策实施市场调控时,要充分考虑调控时滞的客观存在及时滞周期,以保证调控措施的预期成效。

Based on the process of land reserve and the operation of land market,this paper constructs a theoretical framework for the time lag relationship of land market regulation. Taking Beijing as an example,this paper combines the statistical analysis of the micro case level and the polynomial distribution lag model at the macro data level to explore the time lag relationship of land reserve regulation and land supply regulation. The results indicate that the time lag relationship in the two stages is generally stable in 2-3 year in the micro case level,and the time lag relationship between land reserve scale and land supply scale in empirical model isn＇t obvious. There is a 3 year lag between land supply scale and real estate market supply scale,and the time lag of land supply regulation shows positive effect in time lag period. Therefore,when adopting the land policy to implement market regulation,it is necessary for the government to fully consider the regulation lag＇s objective existence and time-lag period to ensure the expected effectiveness of the regulation measures.