基于DEA模型的江西省传统产业节能减排潜力研究

Research on the Energy Saving and Pollutant Emissions Reduction Potential of Traditional Industry in Jiangxi Province Based on the DEA Model

节能减排是缓解我国资源环境压力、优化产业结构和应对全球气候变化的最有效手段．将非期望产出（污染物）纳入到投入和产出导向DEA模型中，分别对2013年江西省11个地级市的29个工业行业节能减排效率和潜力进行测算，得出江西省传统产业分行业的节能减排潜力．发现江西省传统产业节能减排潜力巨大，但减排效率较低，COD和SO_2分别为0．177、0．253．从行业节能来看，金属冶炼及压延加工业节能潜力占工业节能潜力的40．93％．从行业减排看，化学工业和金属冶炼及压延加工业的减排潜力最大．基于以上数据，采用二维矩阵法，分析了各行业实施节能减排的路径．在此基础上，对“两高一资”行业的氨氮和氮氧化物减排潜力进行了测算，并结合节能、COD和SO_2减排数据进行分析，发现化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、造纸及纸制品业和电力、热力的生产和供应业是未来需重点关注的行业．最后提出了相关的政策建议．

Energy saving and pollutant emissions reduction is the most effective mean to ease the pressure of our resources and environment, optimize the industrial structure and deal with global climate change. The author put undesirable output （pollutants） into the input and output-oriented DEA model, and estimated the efficiency and potential of energy saving and pollutant emissions reduction for the 29 traditional industries of 11 cities in Jiangxi during 2013, in order that we can get efficiency and potential of 29 traditional industries of Jiangxi. The results show that the energy saving potential of traditional industries of Jiangxi was huge with the energy saving potential of 30.514 million tons standard coal, but the pollutant emissions reduction efficiency was much lower with the COD 0.177 and SO2 0.253. From the point of industry energy saving, the average annual energy saving potential of metal smelting and rolling processing industry reached 12.4892 million tons, accounting for 40.93% of the industry average annual energy saving potential. From the point of industry pollutant emissions reduction, the chemical industry and metal smelting and rolling processing industry had the maximum emissions reduction potential. Based on the above data, the article used a two-dimensional matrix method to analyze the paths of the industry to implement energy saving and pollutant emissions reduction. On this basis, the article calculated the NH3-N and N0x emissions reduction potential of high pollution, high energy consumption and resource industries of Jiangxi province in 2013, and found that the chemical industry, metal smelting and rolling processing industry, paper and paper products industry, electricity, heat production and supply industry need to be focused on in the future. Finally, the article put forward some relevant policy recommendations.