基于协整方法的新疆农村经济增长减贫效应分析

Analysis of the Effect of Poverty Reduction on Rural Economic Growth in Xinjiang Based on Cointegration

基于新疆2000-2016年的数据，利用协整方程和误差修正模型探讨新疆农村经济增长、收入分配与贫困之间的长短期关系，寻求经济增长减贫效应的变动规律．研究结果表明，这三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，在误差修正机制的作用下，三个变量在短期内被拉回了长期均衡状态；得出结论新疆农村持续的经济增长是减贫的重要手段，收入分配的恶化削弱了经济增长的减贫效果，长期内经济增长和收入分配对贫困的影响均大于短期的影响．因此，在保持农村经济高速持续增长的同时，不断改善农村内部的收入分配状况，是今后新疆区域经济发展战略和扶贫开发的目标和方向．

The relationships of the long-term equilibrium and short-term changeamong the rural economic growth, income distribution and poverty in Xinjiangwere analyized by the cointegration equation and error correction model based on the data from 2000 to 2016.The results showed that there was a long-termequilibrium relationships among them in Xinjiang, the three variables returned to the long-term equilibrium state soon under the reverse correc- tion mechanism, the results showed that the sustained and rapid economic growth in Xinjiang rural areas was an important means of reducing poverty, and the deterioration of the income distribution had weakened the effect of economic growth on poverty reduction. The impact of the long-term economic growth and the income distribution on poverty was greater than that of the short-term. Therefore, maintaining the rapid and sustained growth and improving the income distribu-tion in rural areas would be the goal and the direction of the regional econo-mic development and poverty alleviation in Xinjiang.