用概率统计方法预测洪水水位

Predication of Supplied Water Level With Probability Statistics

河流的水位变化从局部时间看是偶然的，但从长远看．这些偶然的数据常常是必然的结果。在自然条件下取得的水位数据，从本质上看都是随机的，正因为其随机性，统计方法尤为重要。本文试用统计方法分析预测河水的最高洪水水位，这对建筑桥梁、修建堤坝具有一定的参考价值。

It can be seen from a certain time that the varition of water level of a river is accidental,while from a long time,these accidental data usually lead to inevitable outcome. Essentially,the data of water level,obtained under natural conditions,are all stochastic. Thus statistical method is particularly important for the sake of its random in character. In this paper,statistical method is applied in analysing and predicting the highest water level of a river,which has a certain value for constructing bridges and building river dams.