我国天然气“气荒”成因及对策研究

Study on the causes and Countermeasures of natural gas “gas shortage” in China

本文从天然气供应链的角度分析2017年天然气＂气荒＂的成因,即国内供应方面：天然气生产增幅相对缓慢和天然气进口量低于预期;国内需求方面：天然气消费需求总量快速增加,加之天然气供应季节调峰能力不足、谷峰消费需求比值增大,导致2017年初冬天然气供需失衡。本文从天然气供应、消费需求和产业链发展三个角度提出以下建议：（1）增加可中断工业用户,控制天然气消费需求总量,降低天然气调峰压力;（2）加快天然气储气库建设,从而提高天然气供应调峰能力;（3）加强国内天然气开发力度,加强天然气管网建设;（4）增加天然气进口,推进LNG接收站对外开放程度,从而增强天然气供应能力。

From the point of view of natural gas supply chain, this paper analyzes the causes of natural gas ＂gas shortage＂ in 2017, that is, domestic supply aspects： the growth of natural gas production is relatively slow and the import of natural gas is lower than expected; domestic demand： the rapid increase in the total consumption of natural gas and the shortage of natural gas supply season, peak＇s consumption demand ratio increased, leading to the imbalance of supply and demand of natural gas in the early winter of 2017.From three angles of natural gas supply, consumption demand and industrial chain development, this paper puts forward the following suggestions：（1） increasing the interruptible industrial users, controlling the total consumption demand of natural gas, reducing the peak pressure of natural gas regulation;（2）speeding up the construction of natural gas storage, so as to improve the peak capacity of natural gas supply;（3） Strengthening domestic natural gas development and strengthening natural gas pipeline network construction;（4） increase the import of natural gas and promote the opening of the LNG receiving station, so as to enhance the capacity of natural gas supply.