小宗农产品价格泡沫风险研究——以生姜为例

Research on the Risk of Small Farm Products’ Price Bubble——Take ginger as an example

近年来,我国小宗农产品价格的波动日益引起社会的广泛关注。其中,生姜价格的波动具有较强的代表性。本文通过sup ADF系列泡沫检验方法,以生姜为例,检验我国小宗农产品市场价格波动是否存在投机性泡沫,并结合实际情况分析泡沫产生的原因及特征。检验结果表明：2006年8月-2017年12月,我国生姜市场价格存在三个投机泡沫过程,且这三个泡沫过程与当时的供求关系状况、价格预期变化等方面有着密切关系。最后,基于研究结论提出应对策略,旨在确保小宗农产品市场供求关系稳定,促进小宗农产品种植业健康平稳发展。

In recent years, fluctuations in the prices of small agricultural products in China have increasingly attracted widespread attention in society.Among them, the price fluctuation of ginger has a strong representativeness.This article through the sup ADF series bubble test method, taking ginger as an example, to test whether there is a speculative bubble in the price fluctuation of China＇s small agricultural product market, and analyze the causes and characteristics of the bubble in combination with the actual situation. The test results show that： from August 2006 to December 2017, there are three speculative bubble processes in the market price of ginger in China, and these three bubble processes are closely related to the supply and demand relationship at that time, and changes in price expectations. Finally, based on the research conclusions, a coping strategy is proposed to ensure the stability of supply and demand in the small agricultural product market, and promote the healthy and stable development of small agricultural products.