全要素生产率与社会就业关系的研究——以制造业为例

Research on the Relationship between Total Factor Productivity and Social Employment——Take manufacturing as an example

本文从理论与现实角度出发,基于全要素生产效率对社会就业影响关系的分析,运用DEA方法实际测算了我国2000-2016年制造业26个行业的全要率生产率,并构建回归模型,进一步分析了全要素生产率与社会就业之间的关系。研究结果显示：TFP、技术效率、技术进步对促进多数行业就业增长具有正向作用,但对以国有企业和资本密集为主的石油加工、电气机械等行业人口就业具有负效应;技术进步对食品、纺织、冶金、化学纤维等轻工行业和劳动密集型行业具有负效应,而技术效率的提高对这些行业则具有正效应;劳动人口的增长可促进产出增加,且工资对劳动密集型行业影响更大。基于以上结论,本文对促进技术进步与实现充分就业的平衡,推动经济更为平稳健康发展给出对策建议。

Based on the factor price perspective, this paper uses the DEA method to calculate the total rate productivity, technological progress and Man Quist productivity index of 26 industries in China＇s manufacturing industry for 2000-2016 years, also analyzes the relationship between technical efficiency, technological progress and population employment. The results show that：（1）TFP, technical efficiency and technological progress have a positive effect on promoting employment growth in most industries, but have negative effects on the employment of people in oil processing and electrical machinery industries, such as state owned enterprises and capital intensive industries;（2）Technological progress has negative effects on light industry and labor intensive industries such as food, textile, metallurgy and chemical fiber, and the improvement of technical efficiency has positive effects on these industries;（3）the increase of the value added in the traditional manufacturing industry has a more significant negative correlation with the employment. Therefore, the enterprise should follow the principle of cost efficiency in technology research and development, reduce the impact of the fluctuation of the product market price and carry out the technical achievements step by step, so that the local population will be better employed. Meanwhile, the government should also actively guide the direction of the development of science and technology and make policies according to the industry,so as to make our economy develop more stable and healthier.