基于SD的电网公司业务预测模型研究

Study on Electric Power Company Business Forecast Model Based on System Dynamics

我国新一轮电力体制改革的深入推进对现有电力市场产生了巨大的影响。在现有电网公司业务关系的基础上进一步拓展,提取待预测关键业务指标,分别建立原政策及新电改政策下电网公司的系统动力学模型,通过对未来3年售电量、购电量等关键业务指标的计算,分析新电改政策对电网公司的影响,结果表明输配电侧改革对于稳定电网公司的收入具有积极作用,而售电侧改革则极大地削弱了电网公司的客户数量与企业竞争力,因此未来电网公司不应仅依赖输配电业务及保底售电业务实现收益,应在保证输配电业务顺利进行的前提下,从售电侧入手制定相应的措施。

A new round of electric power system reform in China has had a great impact on the existing electricity market. On the basis of the existing power grid business relationship, the key business indicators to be predicted are further expanded and extracted. The system dynamics model of power grid company is established under the original policy and the new electricity reform policy respectively. Through the calculation of key business indicators in the next three years, such as electricity sales and purchasing, and the analysis of the influence of the new electric power reform policy upon grid companies, it is shown that the reform of electric power transmission and distribution side plays a positive role for the stability of power grid company＇s income, while the sale of electric side reform greatly weakened the power grid company＇s customer number and enterprise competitiveness. Therefore, in the future, the power grid company should realize the revenue not only rely on the power transmission and distribution business, but also from the electricity sale. The company should formulate corresponding measures from the sales side in the premise of ensuring the smooth operation of the transmission and distribution business.