摘要
本文在华南煤炭海运系统确定性评价的基础上,对系统的直达、中转两种方案进行了风险评价及可靠性分析。在风险评价中,用系统分析的方法找出影响系统的主要风险因素,通过一定的数学模型,将风险事件和现金流变量联系起来,使评价结果更能反映客观实际情况。在可靠性分析中,提出了软件单元、软件故障等概念,把煤炭海运系统作为可维修系统,进行故障分析,计算系统有效度与单元重要度,最后找出系统方案的薄弱环节,并给出相应对策。
Based on the definite analysis of South China coal sea transportationsystem,risk estimation and reliability analysis are made.In the process ofrisk estimation,the main risk factors that affect the system are found byusing system analysis methods.The mathematical models which reflect therelation of the risk factors and the cash flow variables are built up andthus the estimation can more reflect objective reality.In the process of reli-ability analysis,the concepts of software unit and software fault are putforward.The calculation of system availability and the unit importance arealso made.In addition,the weak links of the system have been found and■ve been given in the paper.
出处
《中国造船》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第3期37-46,共10页
Shipbuilding of China
