朝鲜半岛未来趋势研判与应对建议

Analysis and Judgement of Korean Peninsula's Future Trends

党的十九大报告明确了今后中国外交努力的方向和总目标。这就要求中国外交从周边和发展中国家着手解决地区和全球性难题。由于朝鲜半岛特殊的地理位置和政治地缘关系,半岛局势的变化始终牵动和影响中国的安全及其与周边其他国家的关系,反过来又影响中国与朝韩关系的发展。因此,把握好半岛局势的现状与未来变化趋势对我国制定正确的外交政策具有十分重要的现实意义。目前,半岛缓和态势不断加强和巩固,半岛无核化问题也正朝着有利于推动政治解决的积极方向发展,但由于半岛无核化是"层级"式的"多元复合结构",与半岛乃至东北亚地区或者更大范围的整体和平繁荣紧密联系在一起,所以它的最终实现必然需要经过"分阶段"式的艰难的解决过程,同时必须要靠相关各方的共同努力和坚定意志。

The report of the Nineteenth CPC Congress made clear the direction and overall goal of China＇s diplomatic efforts in the future. This requires China＇s diplomacy to tackle regional and global problems with a focus on the surrounding and developing countries. Due to the special geographical position and geopolitical status of the Korean Peninsula, changes in the situation in the peninsula have always affected China＇s security and its relations with other neighboring countries, which in turn has affected the development of China＇s relations with South Korea and the DPRK. Therefore, grasping the status quo and future changes in the situation in the peninsula have very important practical significance for China in the formulating a correct foreign policy. At present, the relaxing situation on the peninsula has been continuously improved and consolidated. The denuclearization of the peninsula is also moving in a positive direction conducive to promoting a political settlement. However, since the denuclearization of the peninsula is a ＂hierarchical＂ type of ＂multiple composite structure＂ and closely linked to the overall peace and prosperity of the peninsula and even Northeast Asia or a wider region. Therefore, its ultimate realization will inevitably undergo a ＂step-by-step＂ type of difficult resolution process. At the same time, it must rely on the joint efforts and firm will of related parties.