京津冀地区黄标车政策的总量减排效益评估

Emission Reduction Benefits When Eliminating Yellow-label Vehicles in the Jing-jin-ji Region

为评估黄标车提前淘汰补贴和禁行政策的实施效果,并对这两种政策进行比较,在梳理京津冀地区相关政策措施的基础上,采用排放因子法评估其总量减排效益.结果表明:(1)京津冀地区黄标车淘汰政策有较好的减排效益,政策实施以来CO、HC、NO_x、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)累计减排量分别为500.32、39.79、31.82、0.96、1.06万t.(2)黄标车政策减排效益最突出的污染物为CO、HC、NO_x,为大气污染总量减排作出较大贡献.(3)小型载客与轻型载货汽油车是CO与HC的减排主体,重型载货柴油车是NO_x和颗粒物的主要减排贡献车型.(4)京津冀13个城市,道路密集的城区减排更明显.北京市、天津市、石家庄市CO、HC减排较其他城市更显著,天津市、石家庄市、唐山市、邯郸市NO_x和颗粒物减排更显著.(5)提前淘汰补贴和禁行两个政策相比,前者减排效益具有时间延续性,在政策实施后几年效益仍较明显;后者在政策实施前期减排效益明显,随时间而衰减.各地在制定黄标车与老旧机动车政策时,建议前期加强禁行政策、后期加强淘汰补贴政策执行力度.

In order to evaluate policy implementation for yellow-label vehicles（namely,those that fail to meet the Chinese No.1 standard for exhaust emissions）,and to compare the policy of an early elimination subsidy with traffic restrictions of these vehicles,the emission factor method was adopted to calculate the emission reduction resulting from the two policies in the Jing-jin-ji Region.The results showed that：（1） The policies led to good emission reductions for the Jing-jin-ji Region.Since the implementation of the policies,the cumulative reductions of CO,HC,NOx,PM（2.5）,and PM（10） have been 5 003.2 kt,397.9 kt,318.2 kt,9.6 kt,and 10.6 kt,respectively.（2） The pollutants reduced most prominently were CO,HC,and NOx,which contributed greatly to the emission reductions and air pollution control.（3） The main motorcycle types for the CO and HC emission reductions were small gasoline-powered passenger vehicles and light duty gasoline-powered vehicles.Heavy duty diesel cars contributed the most to the emission reduction of NOxand particulate matters.（4） The emission reductions for CO,HC,and NOxwere greater in densely populated urban areas in the Jing-jin-ji Region.The emission reductions of CO and HC in Beijing,Tianjin,and Shijiazhuang were more obvious than in other cities,and the emission reductions of NOxand particulate matters were more obvious in Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Tangshan,and Handan.（5） Comparing the two policies of an early elimination subsidy and traffic restriction,the emission reduction of the former policy is continuous for a few years,and the effectiveness of reduction is significant in several years.However,the effectiveness of the latter policy decreases with time.