全球炼油业发展趋势——来自“第116届美国燃料与石油化工生产商(AFPM)会议”的主要观点

Analysis on global refining industry trends from 2018 AFPM

第116届美国燃料与石油化工生产商(AFPM)会议的主要报告,反映了全球炼油行业发展趋势:1)随着多元竞争的新时代到来,石油将从运输燃料的"垄断地位"转变为"主要参与者";2)受汽车燃油经济性提高及电动汽车逐渐普及等综合影响,石油需求增长与经济发展出现脱钩现象,未来柴油等馏分油需求增速高于汽油;3)炼油行业需要与汽车行业共同努力,在提高燃油经济性的同时使炼厂成本保持在合理水平;4)即将实施的船用燃料油新标准,将对高硫燃料油产量较大的欧洲炼油业产生较大影响;5)未来数字化技术及网络安全技术对炼化行业的影响将越来越大。

This paper summarizes the main ideas in reports of relatively great influence made on the 116 th AFPM Annual Meeting and analyzes the development trends of the global oil refining industry. With the coming of the new age of diversified competition, petroleum will change to a main participator from the transport fuel with its monopoly position; Due to the improvement of vehicle fuel efficiencies and a growing penetration of electric vehicles, the petroleum demand increase starts to be out of line with the economy, and in the future the demand growth of distillate oils like diesel will be higher than that of gasoline; The oil refining industry should make efforts with the automobile industry to increase the fuel economy and keep the refinery cost at reasonable level; The upcoming new standard on marine fuel oil will have big impact on European refining industry with large output of high sulfur fuel oil; In the future, digital technology and network security technology will have greater impact on the refining industry.