2017年世界乙烯行业发展状况与趋势

Global ethylene industry in 2017 and its development trend

2017年,世界新增乙烯产能725万吨/年,总产能达1.69亿吨/年,新增产能主要来自北美和亚太;世界乙烯需求总量达1.58亿吨/年,连续4年保持稳定增长,主要地区市场供应依然偏紧。2017年乙烯价格波动频繁,总体高于上年水平;全球乙烯装置平均开工率达到89.7%;乙烷基乙烯成本继续保持优势,煤(甲醇)制烯烃承压。分地区看,北美第一波乙烷裂解建设项目陆续投产;西欧、日本乙烯产能调整步伐放缓,着力提高装置和原料的灵活性;"一带一路"沿线国家继续推进乙烯项目建设。未来世界乙烯产能继续较快增长,原料将更加轻质化;乙烯衍生物需求增长将推动乙烯产能建设;甲烷直接制乙烯技术正在酝酿工业化突破。

In 2017, newly-added production capacity, mainly from North America and Asia Pacific, increased 7.25 million tons per year and world ethylene total production capacity got to 169 million tons per year. The world ethylene demand reached 1.58 million tons per year, maintaining steady growth for four consecutive years, and the supply of major regional markets remained tight. The price of ethylene fluctuated frequently in 2017, which was higher than the previous year. The average operating rate of global ethylene unit reached 89.7%. The cost of ethylene based on ethane continued keeping advantage and methanol to olefins cost is under pressure. In North America, the first wave of ethane cracking projects is put into production in commission successively. The pace of production adjustment in Western Europe and Japan had slowed down, and the flexibility of equipment and raw materials has been improved. The ethylene project kept developing in the countries along the Belt and Road initiative. In the future, ethylene production capacity will continue to increase rapidly, and the raw materials will be more lightweight; the growth of ethylene derivative demand will promote the production capacity construction of ethylene; and the technology of methane directly to ethylene is ferment breakthrough of industrialization.