消费者产品评论与微博口碑对新产品销售的动态对比影响研究

Dynamic Comparison of the Impact of Consumer Reviews and Microblogging Word-of-Mouth on New Product Sales

以京东某品牌手机为研究对象,采用动态线性模型,结合新产品扩散理论,对消费者产品评论和微博口碑在新产品扩散过程中的动态对比影响进行了研究。结果发现：在新产品扩散的过程中,微博口碑数量对新产品销量的影响呈右偏的倒“U”形关系,而效价无显著影响;对于消费者产品评论,随着新产品的扩散,数量对产品销量的影响逐渐增强,达到一定程度后迅速减弱又逐渐增强并趋于稳定,效价的影响呈右偏的倒“U”形关系。

Based on the new product diffusion theory, this paper takes a certain mobile phone brand as the research object, considers the different forms of online word-of-mouth and studies the dynamic effect of consumer reviews and microblogging word-of-mouth on new product sales. Results show that： firstly, in the process of new product diffusion, the relationship of the volume of microblogging word-of-mouth and new product sales is inverse U shape which is right skewed; secondly, the valence of microblogging word-of-mouth has no significant effect on the new product sales; thirdly, for the consumer reviews, with the spread of products, the effect of volume on new product sales is increased and then declined and finally tended to be stable, and the relationship of volume and new product sales is inverse U shape which is right skewed.