人口老龄化、技术偏向是否加剧了中国劳动收入份额下降——基于中国省际面板数据的理论与实证分析

Can Ageing of Population,Biased Technology Progress Reduce the Labor Income Share in China:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel of China

从CES生产函数出发,构建理论模型,推导人口老龄化和技术进步偏向对劳动收入份额的影响机制,并据此建立实证方程。随后采用中国1978-2015年的省际面板数据,验证人口老龄化与技术进步偏向对劳动收入份额的影响,并测算其影响规模。研究发现:(1)在样本期内,人口老龄化显著降低了中国的劳动收入份额,人口老龄化程度越深,劳动收入份额越低,要素收入分配越不平等;分区域的回归结果显示,人口老龄化对各区域的劳动收入份额的影响仍然显著为负,但呈现区域异质性。(2)我国技术进步总体偏向资本,技术进步偏向显著降低了劳动收入份额;分区域的回归结果显示,技术进步偏向对劳动收入份额的影响仍然显著为负,东部技术进步偏向效应显著大于中部和东北部以及西部地区。(3)在经济发展不同阶段,经济发展水平对劳动收入份额的影响不同;此外,劳动收入份额会随对外开放度和通货膨胀的上升而下降。政府可通过适当的人口政策、就业和社保政策及货币政策实施缓解中国劳动收入份额降低的现状。

This paper constructs a theoretical model to deduce the influence mechanism of population aging and biased technological progress on labor income share by the CES production function,and establishes empirical equations accordingly.Then using the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2015 in China to verify the effect of population aging and biased technological progress on labor income share,and to calculate the scale of the impacts.The results show that：（1） During the sample period,the aging of the population has significantly reduced China＇s labor income share,and the deeper aging population is,the lower the share of labor income is.Therefore,it aggravates the unequal distribution of factor income.The sub-region regressions show that the influence of population aging on labor income share in each region is still significantly negative,but presenting regional heterogeneity.（2） China＇s technological progress is generally biased towards capital,and the t biased technological progress has significantly reduced the share of labor income.The sub-region regressions show that the influence of technological progress on the share of labor income was still significantly negative,and the influence of eastern region is larger than the middle eastern and northern region and western region.（3） The impact of economic development levels on labor income share is different in different stages of economic development; in addition,the share of labor income will decrease with the increase of the degree of opening up and inflation.Therefore,the government can ease the current situation of the reduction of China＇s labor income share through appropriate population policies,employment and social security policies and monetary policy.