乌鲁木齐市大气污染对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响的病例交叉研究

Case-crossover study of the effect of atmospheric pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Urumqi

目的定量评估乌鲁木齐市大气污染物短期暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。方法采用病例交叉研究的方法,分析2014年1月1日—2015年12月31日乌鲁木齐市大污染与呼吸系统疾病死亡相关性,并按采暖期和年龄等潜在混杂因素进行分层分析。结果PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2质量浓度每增加10μg/m^3,每日呼吸系统疾病死亡发生的OR值分别为1.032(95%CI:1.016~1.049)、1.019(95%CI:1.008~1.030)、1.076(95%CI:1.033~1.120)、1.183(95%CI:1.093~1.281)。按采暖期及年龄分层分析时,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2对每层呼吸系统疾病死亡影响均有统计学意义(P<0.05),且呼吸系统疾病死亡发生的OR值非采暖期高于采暖期、低龄组高于高龄组。多污染物模型中,PM_(2.5)与其他污染物联合作用对呼吸系统疾病死亡发生OR值均比PM_(2.5)单独影响高,且随着模型中污染物数量的减少OR值有下降趋势。结论乌鲁木齐市大气污染物短期暴露增加呼吸系统疾病死亡人数。

Objective]To quantitatively evaluate the effect of short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Urumqi.[Methods]Case-crossover study was used to analyze the relationship between atmospheric pollutants and respiratory disease mortality from January 2014 to December 2015 in Urumqi,and stratified analysis was carried out according to the potential mixing factors such as heating period and age.[Results]The mass concentration of PM（2.5）,PM（10）,SO2,NO2 increased each 10μg/m-3,the OR of daily respiratory disease mortality was 1.032（95%CI：1.016-1.049）,1.019（95%CI：1.008-1.030）,1.183（95%CI：1.093-1.281）and 1.076（95%CI：1.033-1.120）.In stratified analysis according to heating period and age,significant associations were observed between PM（2.5）,PM（10）,SO2,NO2 and respiratory disease mortality（P〈0.05）,and the OR of daily respiratory disease mortality in non-heating period and low age group were higher than those in heating period and high age group.In multicontaminant model,the effect of PM（2.5） combined with other pollutants on OR of daily respiratory disease mortality was higher than the effect of single PM（2.5）,and with the decreasing of pollutants number,the OR had a downtrend.[Conclusion]The short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants can increase the death toll of respiratory disease in Urumqi.