中国各省物流业碳排放的脱钩及影响因素研究

Research on Decoupling and Its Influencing Factors of the Carbon Emission for Logistics Industry in China

物流业是中国能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的主要行业之一。基于面板数据,根据IPCC提供的方法,估算中国30个省2007-2013年间物流业的碳排放量。在此基础上,利用Tapio脱钩模型分析了30个省物流业碳排放的脱钩状态。利用LMDI模型对物流业的碳排放从地区层面进行了分解。结果发现,2007-2013年间,中国30个省物流业碳排放和行业产值同期都呈现增长趋势,但各省碳排放平均增长率的离散程度大于物流业产值平均增长率的离散程度;地区之间脱钩状态具有明显的差异,仅3个省处于强脱钩状态;碳排放总效应中,产出规模效应全部属于绝对性的正向影响。得出结论,产出规模效应对物流业碳排放起到绝对性的影响,中国的物流业仍处于粗方式的增长阶段,摸清了中国物流业碳排放的变化趋势及其影响因素,对各地需因地制宜制定低碳物流业发展政策具有指导意义。

Logistics industry is one of the main industries of China’s energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.Based on the panel data, according to the method provided by IPCC, the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in 30 provinces of China from 2007 to 2013 are estimated. On this basis, the Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling status of the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in 30 provinces. The carbon emission of logistics industry is decomposed from the regional level by using LMDI model. From 2007 to 2013, the 30 province’s logistics industry carbon emissions and industry output value showed increasing trend, but the discrete degree of provincial average growth rate for carbon emissions is greater than the discrete degree of the average growth rate for logistics industry output value. Decoupling state has obvious difference among areas and only three provinces in strong decoupling state. For total carbon emissions effect, output scale all belongs to absolute positive impact. In conclusion, the output scale of logistics industry carbon emissions has the absolutely positive influence. China’s logistics industry is still in the growth stage by way of rough. The differences of industry emission reduction capacity among provinces are expanding. It needs to adopt and establish the different low carbon logistics industry development policy.