环渤海地区人海经济系统环境适应性时空差异及影响因素

Spatio-temporal difference and influencing factors of environmental adaptability measurement of human-sea economic system in Bohai Rim region

适应性是全球变化和环境与发展研究的热点和重要领域,并为区域可持续发展研究提供了新的研究框架和有效分析工具。以适应性为切入点,基于敏感性、稳定性、响应3要素构建评估框架,应用熵权TOPSIS法和协整检验分析环渤海地区人海经济系统环境适应性的时空差异和影响因素。结果表明:(1)环渤海地区人海经济系统环境适应性的发展受到内源力和外向力的双重扰动作用;(2)不同适应性要素以及适应性系统时空分异特征显著;人海环境系统敏感性较弱且呈现南北高、中间低的"哑铃形"分布状态;人海环境系统稳定性较差且呈现东高西低的发展态势;人海经济系统响应较弱且呈明显"极差化"分异特征;人海经济系统适应性与人海环境系统适应性大致保持线性相关关系;(3)2000-2014年环渤海地区人海经济系统环境适应性呈缓慢上升趋势,采用聚类分析方法将适应性分为4类,高适应性城市(0.536)为大连;较高适应性城市(0.442~0.482)有天津、烟台、青岛、日照、东营和威海;中适应性城市(0.346~0.380)有秦皇岛、潍坊、营口和丹东;低适应性城市(0.303~0.326)有唐山、葫芦岛、滨州、盘锦、沧州和锦州;(4)人海经济系统环境适应性的影响因素呈现海洋环境管理力度>海洋经济对外交流能力>港口建设水平>人才支持力的正向驱动作用。

Adaptability theory is an important tool to analyze the degree, mechanism and process of interaction in global environmental change, which provides a new perspective for the research on sustainability assessment. Taking adaptability as the starting point, this paper constructs an evaluation framework based on the three elements of sensitivity, stability and response. We use entropy weight-TOPSIS and cointegration test to analyze the spatio-temporal difference and influencing factors for the environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system in the Bohai Rim region. The results indicate that：（1） The environmental adaptability development of human-sea economic system has been under the double disturbance effect of internal and external factors.（2） Different adaptability elements and adaptability subsystems show completely different regional evolution characteristics. Human-sea environment system is less sensitive and presents ＂dumbbell-shaped＂ distribution with high in the north and south and low in the center; The stability of this system is poor and the development trend of the high east and low west; The response of the human-economic system is relatively weak and demonstrates a ＂grade-difference＂; The adaptability of human-sea economic system is linearly related to the adaptability of human-sea environment system.（3） The environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system in the study region improves slowly between 2000 and 2014, and a cluster analysis method is applied to categorize the adaptability into four types： the city with high adaptability is Dalian; the cities with higher adaptability are Tianjin, Yantai, Qingdao, Rizhao,Dongying and Weihai; the cities with moderate adaptability are Qinhuangdao, Weifang,Yingkou and Dandong; the cities with low adaptability are Tangshan, Huludao, Binzhou, Panjin,Cangzhou and Jinzhou.（4） Environmental management, extroversion marine economy, port construction and talent support are important influencing factors that play a positive role in the environmental adaptability of the human-sea economic system.