中国省际户籍匹配工业偏离的时空演变及驱动因素

The Temporal-Spatial Evolution and Driving Factors of Industry Deviation in Inter-Provincial Household Register Matching in China

基于中国1993—2015年31个省域面板数据,运用探索性空间数据法和动态空间杜宾面板模型研究省际户籍匹配工业偏离的时空演变与驱动因素。结果表明:省际户籍匹配工业偏离差异从2005年高位回落,至2011年平稳运行,存在空间正相关,且空间格局层级稳定,存在路径依赖,并且长短期空间溢出都表明扩大省际户籍匹配工业偏离的驱动因素为人户分离、工业发展、经济差距和出口,缩小因素为产业结构、农业发展和城镇化。对此,按省际户籍人口相匹配原则,实施工业平衡布局,于有效解决区域发展不平衡不充分的社会矛盾,实现共同富裕至关重要。

With the province-level panel data in china from 1993 to 2015, this paper adopts the exploratory spa- tial data analysis （ESDA） and dynamic space Durbin panel model to study the temporal-spatial evolution and driving factors of industry deviation in the inter-provincial household register matching. The result indicates that the industry deviation difference in the inter-provincial household register matching dropped from a high position in 2005 to a smooth operation in 2011, showing a positive spatial correlation and a stable spatial pattern with a path dependence. Meantime, both the short-term and long-term spatial spillovers show that the driving factors for expanding the industry deviation in the inter-provincial household register matching include household separa- tion, industrial development, as well as economic disparity and export. And the narrowing factors are industrial structure, agricultural development and urbanization. In this regard, the industrial layout is suggested to match the principle in accordance with the population of inter-provincial household register, which will be of critical significance to effectively solve the social contradiction well as achieve common prosperity. of unbalanced and inadequate regional development as well as achieve common prosperity.