海南离境退税政策促进了入境旅游吗?——基于海南入境旅游人数决定因素的实证研究

Does Hainan Departure Tax Refund Policy Boost Inbound Tourism? An Empirical Study of the Determinants of the Number of Inbound Tourists into Hainan

基于目的地与客源地的双边视角构建海南入境旅游人数决定因素引力模型,采用2008—2016年22个海南入境旅游客源地面板数据,实证评估了海南离境退税政策的实施效果。结果表明:离境退税政策显著促进了海南入境旅游人数的增加,带动海南样本期内入境旅游人数提高了0.2328个百分点;除离境退税政策外,客源地的人口规模和经济发展水平是海南入境旅游人数的重要决定因素,海南与客源地的地理和文化距离显著制约了入境旅游人数增长,但海南作为目的地的接待能力和产品供给的影响不显著。

While constructing a gravity model on the determinants of the number of inbound tourists into Hainan from a bilateral perspective of destination and tourist source, the paper adopts the panel data of 22 tourist sources from inbound tourism in Hainan from 2008 to 2016, empirically evaluating the implementation effects of Hainan departure tax refund policy. The result shows that the departure tax refund policy has significantly increased the number of inbound tourists to Hainan while correspondingly raising that in the sample period by 0.2328 percentage points. In addition to the tax refund policy, the population size of tourist sources and economic development constitute the important determinants of the number of inbound tourists to Hainan. The geographical and cultural distance between Hainan and tourist sources significantly restricts the growth of inbound tourists to Hainan, while exerting no significant influence on the reception capacity and product supply of Hainan as the destination.