资源型地区经济周期与全国的比较研究——基于内蒙古自治区的研究

A Comparative Study on the Economic Cycle of Resource-based Regions and the Whole Country——Based on a Study of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

采用H-P滤波和C-M同步指数两种方法检验资源型地区在1990—2016年年间的经济周期同步性的研究发现,资源型地区经济波动比其他地区强烈,经济周期长度、频率和幅度各不相同,伴随资源价格市场化的推进,资源地区和其他地区周期同步性明显增强。资源型地区保持经济持续平稳增长有一定难度,转型的根本路径还是要遵循比较优势和产业发展规律,营造经济长期健康增长的政策和制度氛围。

H-P filter and C-M synchronization index are used to test the economic cycle synchronization during the period 1990-2016 in Resource-based regions. It is found that the economic fluctuation in resource-base regions is more frequent than other regions,with cycle length,frequency and amplitude all being different,but with the promotion of marketization of resource prices,the synchronization of resource-based regions and other regions has significantly increased. It is difficult for resource-based regions to maintain sustained and stable economic growth. The fundamental path for transformation is to follow the comparative advantages and the laws of industrial development,and to create a long-term and healthy economic growth policy and institutional atmosphere.