入室盗窃犯罪时段分布特征分析

Study on Timing Distribution of Residential Burglary

在犯罪时间分析中,时段分析由于颗粒度较小,容易受到犯罪时间模糊性的影响。以某市的入室盗窃案件为样本,从报案时间和时段概率两个角度研究犯罪时间的分布特征。从结果来看,基于报案时间和时段概率的犯罪时间分布具有相同的统计分布特征,但在分布的集中度上存在着差别,主要表现为基于报案时间的时段分析容易低估夜间发案的可能性。在案发时间推断方面,基于时段概率的分析方法能够提供一种较为合理的解决方案,为公安部门进行警务工作提供有效的依据。

In crime study, the hour is a finer unit to vague the timing distribution of crime. Taking a residential burglary as an example, crime timing distribution is investigated by using crime-reporting stamp and aoristic signatures. The research findings indicate that two methods display similar statistics but show different concentration displacement, in which the crime-reporting stamp underestimate the timing distribution of crime at night. On deducing the crime occurring time, aoristic signatures could provide a more rational way to determine when the crime is most likely to happen, which leads to a more effective policing work.