摘要
在犯罪时间分析中,时段分析由于颗粒度较小,容易受到犯罪时间模糊性的影响。以某市的入室盗窃案件为样本,从报案时间和时段概率两个角度研究犯罪时间的分布特征。从结果来看,基于报案时间和时段概率的犯罪时间分布具有相同的统计分布特征,但在分布的集中度上存在着差别,主要表现为基于报案时间的时段分析容易低估夜间发案的可能性。在案发时间推断方面,基于时段概率的分析方法能够提供一种较为合理的解决方案,为公安部门进行警务工作提供有效的依据。
In crime study, the hour is a finer unit to vague the timing distribution of crime. Taking a residential burglary as an example, crime timing distribution is investigated by using crime-reporting stamp and aoristic signatures. The research findings indicate that two methods display similar statistics but show different concentration displacement, in which the crime-reporting stamp underestimate the timing distribution of crime at night. On deducing the crime occurring time, aoristic signatures could provide a more rational way to determine when the crime is most likely to happen, which leads to a more effective policing work.
作者
陈鹏
瞿珂
胡啸峰
曾昭龙
CHEN Peng;QU Ke;HU Xiao-feng;ZENG Shao-long(School for Information and Cyber Security of People's Public Security University of China Beijing 102600;Center for Intelligence and Information of Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau Beijing 102300)
出处
《中国刑警学院学报》
2018年第2期41-44,共4页
Journal of Criminal Investigation Police University of China
基金
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(编号:2015BAK12B03)