央行偏好识别与货币政策调控模式检验——基于不同产出缺口的实证研究

The Preference of the Central Bank and Monetary Policy Rules——Based on Different Output Gap

尽管已有大量文献对泰勒规则在中国的适用性进行研究,但绝大部分研究结论认为我国中央银行并未针对产出缺口调整名义利率,这与我国中央银行公开承诺的货币政策,调控目标相悖。本文通过构建"伪产出缺口"作为实际产出与潜在产出偏离的一种测度,设定了基于"伪产出缺口"的泰勒规则模型,在此基础上对后顾性和前瞻性泰勒规则进行实证检验。结果发现,我国中央银行存在针对"伪产出缺口"逆周期调整短期名义利率的偏好,为近年我国产出一直围绕目标增速中高速增长提供了政策依据。

Despite the numerous literature studying the feasibility of the Taylor rule in China, most of the research conclude that China＇s central bank does not adjust the nominal interest rate to the output gap, which is inconsistent with the public commitment control target of the central bank. We measure the deviation between the actual output and potential out- put, by constructing pseudo output gap, and construct the Taylor rule including pseudo output gap. We find that China＇s cen- tral bank counter-cyclically adjust the nominal interest rate on pseudo output gap, through estimating the backward-looking and forward-looking Taylor rules. Such a regulation mode of monetary policy provides a guarantee for high growth of output in recent years.