中国城市化动力机制与阶段性研究——基于产业发展与户籍制度变迁的视角

Research on the Dynamic Mechanism and Phases of Urbanization in China——Based on the Perspective of Industrial Development and Household Registration System Changes

在制度约束条件下,农业发展是城市化发展的前提,非农产业发展则是城市化发展的持续动力。因此,对中国城市化进程的阶段性研究,务必需要结合中国的户籍制度变迁过程与各产业的发展实际进行分析。以此为研究思路,采用构建城市化发展动态模型及测算其匡特似然比统计量的方法,实证分析1953年—2016年的中国城市化发展进程。结果表明,各产业发展和户籍制度改革均对中国城市化发展进程有正向带动作用,但其发展过程并非是平稳的,以1994年为界,第一阶段(1953年—1994年)中国城市化发展缓慢,第二阶段(1995年—2016年)发展则较为迅速,除工业发展均有益于两阶段的中国城市化进程之外,其他因素对城市化发展的作用相异。

Under the restriction of institutions,the agricultural development is the premise of the urbanization development,and the non-agricultural industries development are the sustained momentum of the urbanization development. Therefore,in order to make a systematic research on the phases of urbanization in China,it is necessary to analyze the reform of household registration system and the actual development of various industries. Taking this as the research approach,this paper adopts the method of constructing the dynamic model of urbanization development and calculating its quandt likelihood ratio to empirically analyze the development process of urbanization in China at the period of 1953 to 2016. The results show that the industry development and the reform of the household registration system have an positive effect on the development process of urbanization in China. But,but its development process is not smooth. With the 1994 as the boundary,the urbanization developed slowly in the first phase（ 1953—1994） and the second phase（ 1995—2016） developed more rapidly. Except that the industrial development is beneficial to the urbanization process in the two stages,other factors play different roles in the development of urbanization.