辽宁省区域碳排放-经济发展-环境保护耦合协调分析

Regional Carbon Emissions, Economic Development and Environmental Protection Coupling in Liaoning Province

基于三阶段DEA模型测算2004～2015年辽宁省14市的碳排放效率,将碳排放效率分解成技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,并将3种效率作为碳排放系统的评价指标,继而构建区域碳排放-经济发展-环境保护（3E系统）耦合协调评价体系。结果显示：辽宁省三大系统耦合协调度处于较低水平,空间上呈＂递进式＂进步规律,表现为沈阳、大连领先;鞍山、抚顺、丹东、锦州、营口、辽阳、盘锦、阜新、铁岭、葫芦岛处于中等水平;本溪、朝阳最低的空间分布规律。最后通过灰色GM（1.1）预测模型得到2016～2020年辽宁省3E系统耦合协调度有所提升。研究发现,将碳排放效率作为碳排放系统的评价指标适用于三元系统耦合协调研究,结果与辽宁省实际情况相符。

With the carbon emissions rapid increased, the conflict developed among carbon emissions, economic development, and environmental protection. Liaoning Province is a typical province with high energy consumption, economic burden and environmental pollution. Therefore, the research has become a new breakthrough, which in alleviating the contradiction between the social economy and the environment. In this atricle, based on the three stage DEA model, we can calculate carbon emissions efficiency which is divided into technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency of 14 cities in Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2015. Then three coupling model was established to analyze the relationship among the carbon emissions,economic development, and environmental protection（3 E system）. Meanwhile, GM（1.1） forecast model was also used to analyze the 3 E system coupling in Liaoning province from 2016 to 2020, but the results are not optimistic. Based on the forecast results, it is necessary for Liaoning Province to take corresponding measures to solve these problems. The results show that the 3 E system coupling in Liaoning Province is still at a low level.Of all the cities in Liaoning Province, Shenyang and Dalian have been leading all the time. In other twelve cities, Anshan, Fushun, Dandong, Jinzhou, Yingkou, Liaoyang, Panjin, Fuxin, Tieling, Huludao show moderate levels; while Benxi, Chaoyang have the lowest level. The coupling degree of 3 E system has been promoted during these twelve years. However, the level of 3 E system coupling is still low, which has a big margin for improvement. According to the conclusion, taking carbon emissions efficiency as the evaluation index of carbon emissions system is suitable, and the results are coincide with actual situation in Liaoning Province. In order to improve the coupling degree of 3 E system and reduce regional differences, we believe that all the regions should unify their own actual development situation, compare superiority and make science formulation development policy. Overall, every city should take appropriate measures to promote region carbon emissions, economic development, and environmental protection.