金融生态环境对P2P网贷发展的影响研究

Research on the impact of financial ecological environment on P2P network lending development

互联网金融背景下,P2P网贷的研究具有重要的理论参考价值。在金融生态环境视角下,从经济发展、金融发展、政府治理能力和制度文化与诚信建设4个方面构建了P2P网贷发展影响因素的回归模型,在此基础上运用了Eviews8.0对影响P2P网贷发展的关键影响因素进行了多重检验。参考了2013-2017年的月度数据,运用时间序列分析,采取协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系等系统考察了金融生态环境和P2P网贷发展的关系。结果表明:金融发展对P2P网贷发展在长期和短期内都有较大的促进作用,二者互为格兰杰因果关系,具有双向互动机制,其余因素对P2P网贷发展无明显影响。

In the background of Internet finance, the research of P2 P lending is of great theoretical reference value. From the four aspects of economic development, financial development, government governance capacity, system culture and integrity construction, a regression model of influencing factors of P2 P net loan development is constructed. On this basis, Eviews8.0 is applied to make multiple tests on the key factors influencing the development of P2 P net loan. Referring to the monthly data from 2013 to 2017, using time series analysis, the relationship between the financial ecological environment and the development of P2 P net loan is investigated by the system of cointegration test, error correction model and Grainger causality. The results show that the development of financial development plays a greater role in promoting the development of P2 P net loan in both long and short term. The two parties have Grainger causality and two-way interaction mechanism, and the other factors have no obvious influence on the development of P2 P net loan.