利率市场化对商业银行长期影响刍议

Study of Long-Term Effect of Interest Rate Liberalization on Commercial Banks

2015年存款利率浮动上限被货币当局宣布正式放开,标志着中国利率市场化已基本完成,利率市场化的潜移默化对商业银行牵一发而动全身。笔者立足于理论演绎,借鉴国外实践经验和国内实证结论,从利率市场化对商业银行的破产风险、商业银行的监管调整两个视角刍议利率市场化的长期影响。剖析认为与其他国家的实践有所区别,中国特色的政府隐性兜底、高密度的微观监管、若隐若显的数量型指标控制,以及经济良好的基本面与韧性,使得中国商业银行出现破产风险的概率较低。在商业银行配置高收益资产倾向加大、流动性管理难度上升、房地产领域支持加强和混业经营步伐加快等调整的同时,行政当局需要合理调整商业银行的监管内容,以顺利适应商业银行在利率市场化下的角色转变。

People＇s Bank of China officially announced that control of floating ceiling for deposit rate was liberated in the year of 2015,which marked the substantial completion of interest rate liberalization in China.The process of interest rate liberalization has an important impact on commercial banks. Based on theoretical deduction,and drawing on foreign experience and domestic empirical conclusions,this study concentrates on long-term effect of interest rate liberalization on commercial banks,which mainly focus on bankrupcy risk and supervision adjustment of commercial banks. We find Chinese characteristics of government＇s implicit support,high density micro regulations,ambiguous quantitative index control,good economic fundamentals and toughness make the low possibility of bankruptcy for commercial banks in China. The finding is different from what happens in other countries. Under the tendency of commercial banks to allocate more high-yielding assets,difficulty of liquidity management rises,real estate support strengthened and pace of the mix business accelerated. In order to successfully adapt to changes about commercial banks in terms of interest rate liberalization administration needs to adjust the contents of bank supervision properly.