中国经济周期波动福利成本的估算

The Estimation of the Welfare Costs of Chinese Business Cycles

本文在Lucas基准模型基础上加入了劳动时间和就业的波动,笔者发现可以把经济周期的福利损失分为消费波动的福利损失和劳动时间波动的福利损失,并且可以把经济周期的福利损失看作消费和劳动时间错配的结果。基于宏观时间序列数据的数值计算结果显示,如果考虑到总劳动时间波动以就业波动的形式存在,估算值最大将达到4.476%,远大于基准模型0.135%的结果。此外,本文还对消除经济周期波动的收益与提升经济增长率的收益进行了比较,发现当就业率对经济波动比较敏感且风险规避系数为5时,消除经济波动的收益远大于提升长期增长率1个百分点的收益。本文的贡献在于使得经济周期成本的估算脱离风险规避系数的束缚,并且经济周期波动导致的资源错配才是经济周期成本计算的关键,本文的研究对于政府制定宏观经济政策时关于增长还是稳定的权衡具有重要意义。

This paper combines the fluctuations of labor hours and employments in the Lucas＇ benchmark model. The welfare loss of economic cycles is divided into the welfare loss of consumption cycles and that of labour hours＇ cycles. It is also able to treat the welfare loss of economic cycles as the mismatch results of consumption and labor hours. The numerical results based on macro time series data show that if the total fluctuations of labor hours take place in the form of fluctuations of employment,the estimated value will reach4. 476%,which is far greater than the 0. 135% of the benchmark model. In addition,comparing the gain of elimination of the economic cycles and the gain of the increase of growth rates,this paper finds that when the employment rate is relatively sensitive on the business cycles and risk aversion coefficient is 5,the gain of eliminations of economic cycles is far greater than the gain of promote 1 percentage point of growth rate. The contribution of this paper is to estimate the costs of economic cycle from the constraint of risk aversion coefficients,and the resource mismatch caused by economic cycles is the key to the calculation of the costs of economic cycles,this research is of great significance for the government to formulate macroeconomic policy when it comes to the trade-off between growth and stability.