中国在全球价值链中的嵌入机理与演进路径研究:基于生产链长度的分析

China's Embedded Mechanism and Evolution Path in GVC: Based on Production Length Analysis

文章借鉴Wang等(2017)对生产链长度的定义,构建全球投入产出模型,将中国参与全球价值链的生产链长度分为纯国内、传统贸易和GVC生产链长度,利用2000~2014年的全球投入产出表对中国整体产业、三大产业及各细分产业在全球价值链中的嵌入机制与演进路径进行研究,结果表明:(1)中国在全球价值链中是沿路径1演进的,即生产链长度增加,国内和GVC生产链长度都变长,说明中国的国际与国内生产分割呈现互补效应,生产结构复杂程度显著提升,产业关联更紧密。同时,中国的GVC生产链长度远远高于传统贸易和纯国内生产链长度,说明中国的生产关联存在"二元结构"。(2)中国的三大产业也是沿着路径1演进的,制造业的生产链长度大于农业和服务业,但农业的生产链增长最快。(3)中国大多数细分行业沿着路径1演进,但有些细分行业出现了国内生产和国际生产的替代效应,沿路径2或3演进,还有些细分行业的国内和GVC生产链同时变短,沿着路径4演进。中国要积极嵌入全球价值链,调整优化产业结构,同时还要防范大规模产业外迁的风险,避免国际生产与国内生产的替代效应。

We use the world input-output table of 2000~2014 to analyze the evolution path of China as a whole,its three major industries,its segment industries in the global value chain.The results show that:(1)China's evolution path in GVC is along.China's whole production length.Domestic and GVC production length become longer,which shows that China's international and domestic production division are complementary.At the same time,China's GVC production length is much longer than that of traditional trade and pure domestic production length,which means there is"dual structure"in China's production links.(2)The production chain of manufacture are longer than that of agriculture and services,and the production chain of agriculture is growing fastest.China should participate global value chain to adjust and optimize industrial structure,also should prevent the risk of large-scale industrial relocation and avoid the substitution effect of international and domestic production.