基础设施建设对“一带一路”亚洲国家双边贸易影响研究:基于引力模型扩展的分析

The Infrastructure Construction Level of the Belt and Road Impacts on Bilateral Trade from Asian Countries: Analysis Based on Extended Gravity Model

随着经济全球化的发展,交通和通信基础设施建设水平在国际贸易中的相对作用不断凸显。文章基于引力扩展模型,聚焦于"一带一路"沿线亚洲国家交通基础设施和通信基础设施建设水平对其区域内贸易量的影响展开实证分析,结果表明:当一国交通基础设施发展到一定水平后,通信基础设施的作用会越来越显著;不同收入水平国家之间的进口对基础设施建设水平要求不同,其中高等收入水平国家从中低等收入水平国家进口更加注重出口国的通信基础设施建设水平;中低等收入水平国家从高等收入水平国家进口更加注重出口国的交通基础设施建设水平;中低等收入水平国家之间的进口取决于出口国的通信基础设施建设水平和交通基础设施建设水平,但是通信基础设施的经济效应强于交通基础设施。此外,相对于一国基础设施建设对进口贸易的影响,经济自由度对中低等收入水平国家的进口贸易也同样重要。

With the development of economic globalization,the relative role of traffic and communication infrastructure in international trade has been highlighted. Based on the extended gravity model,this paper focuses on empirical analysis that the Infrastructure construction level of the Belt and Road impacts on bilateral trade from Asian countries. The results show that when the traffic infrastructure develops to a certain level,the communication infrastructure gradually becomes more and more significantly important; and that infrastructure requirements from countries with different income level are different. The higher income countries importing from the middle and low income countries pay more attention to communication infrastructure construction of the exporting countries. The middle and low income countries importing from higher income countries pay more attention to traffic infrastructure construction of the exporting countries. The middle and low income countries importing from the middle and low income countries pay more attention to communication and transportation infrastructure construction level,but the economic effect of communication infrastructure is stronger than that of transportation infrastructure.