以色列“向右转”的人口政治学考察

Study on Israel’s Turning Right From the Perspective of Political Demography

自上世纪90年代末起，以色列政府在巴勒斯坦问题上愈加趋于保守，这与世界各方为巴以和平的努力背道而驰。本文试图从人口政治学的角度探讨以色列社会“向右转”的原因。自苏联解体后，大批移民从原苏联地区进入以色列，给后者的社会、政治结构带来了根本变化，成为右翼政府的社会基础。令人更不安的是，苏联移民的相当一部分后代子女在以色列这个“大熔炉”中，依然保留了政治上的保守特征。这与俄语在以色列作为媒体主要语言之一有着直接联系。它将使以色列右翼政府持久存在，也将增大巴以和平进程的成功难度。

Starting from 1990s, Israeli government has been increasingly turning right, which, to a certain extent, counters the efforts of international community in facilitating peace in the region. This article tries to explore the cause of the turning right in the Israeli society in a perspective of political demography. The author holds that the Israeli social structure has been fundamentally changed due to massive immigration from the former Soviet Union, which laid the groundwork of a right-wing government. More importantly, the conservative feature in terms of political attitude among the young generations inherited from the elder one has been hardly altered regardless of Israel＇s ＂melting pot＂. The widely used Russian language in media for this group made the formation of ＂social inertia＂ possible. Under such circumstances, the peace process can hardly move forward.