中美贸易逆差真的导致美国就业下降吗?——兼论特朗普“贸易再平衡促进就业”的困境

Does the Trade Deficit Really Lead to A Decline in Employment in the US?

本文采用美国国际贸易管理局（ITA）的出口创造就业（Jobs Supported by Exports）数据库所提供的1999-2015年间美国对188个贸易伙伴出口所创造的就业数量,实证检验美国与其贸易伙伴之间的进口、出口以及贸易平衡（顺差或逆差）对其出口创造就业率的影响,特别是进口以及贸易平衡对美国就业率的影响。实证结果发现：美国与其贸易伙伴的进口、出口均会促进美国的出口创造就业率,美国对其贸易伙伴贸易顺差的提升（或贸易逆差的减少）对美国出口创造的就业率没有显著影响;在美国占比较优势的中、高技术含量产品上,其从贸易伙伴的产品进口增加会促进美国的出口创造就业率,在美国没有比较优势的低技术含量产品上,其对贸易伙伴的产品出口的增加则会降低美国的出口创造就业率;而且美国对其贸易伙伴的劳动、资源密集型产品、中技术含量产品的贸易顺差的提升（或贸易逆差的减少）会降低美国出口创造就业的增加;美国从产生贸易顺差的经济体增加进口并不影响美国的出口创造就业率,而从产生贸易逆差的经济体增加进口还能够促进美国出口创造就业的增加。由此可以看出,美国政府推行的贸易保护主义政策所依据的“货物进口增加导致就业下降”的观点是不全面、不准确的;美国打着保护就业的旗号实施贸易保护不仅阻碍其国际贸易的健康发展,违背全球自由贸易的潮流,也不能从根本上实现其促进就业的目标。

Using the information of 188 United States＇ trading partners＇ exports during 1999 and 2015 provided by the ITA＇s （The International Trade Administration） Jobs Supported by Exports database, the paper empirically tests the impacts of the imports, exports and the trade balance （surplus or deficit） between the USA and its trading partners on the employment rate of the USA. The results show that： both imports and exports between the USA and its trading Partners promote the employment of the USA~ the increase in the US trade surplus （or the decrease in the trade deficit） with its trading partners has no significant impact on the employment rate; in the field of the medium and high technology products in which the USA hasthe comparative advantage, the increase in imports from the trading partners will boost the US employment; on the contrary, in the field of the low technology products in which the USA has no comparative advantage, the increase in imports from the trading partners will reduce the US employment; furthermore, the increase in the trade surplus （or the decrease in the trade deficit） in the field of labor, resource intensive products and medium technology products will reduce the employment~ the increase in imports from the economies that generate trade surplus does not affect the employment of the USA~ but the increase in the imports from the economies that have trade deficit can create more jobs in the USA. The results indicate that the point of view-＂ the increase in the imports of goods brings about a decline in employment＂-which lead to the policy of trade protectionism pursued by the US government is not comprehensive and inaccurate. The implementation of trade protection under the banner of protecting employment not only hinders the healthy development of its international trade, but also violates the trend of global free trade, and it can not achieve its goal of promoting employment at all.