基于权重融合和云模型的岩爆倾向性预测研究

Prediction of rock burst tendency based on weighted fusion and improved cloud model

岩爆倾向性预测是地下工程防灾减灾的基础工作之一。针对现有数学模型在确定岩爆指标综合权重中缺少必要的检验过程以及预测准确度不高的不足,提出了一种岩爆倾向性预测的改进云模型。改进模型通过云理论中的云雾化条件来对指标权重进行融合,进而获取通过检验后的指标综合权重;通过对原始云模型进行修正,运用综合云算法生成等级综合云,弥补了原始云模型对等级区间均值过于敏感的不足。最后将国内外若干岩爆实例用于验证提出模型的科学性和实用性。结果表明：基于云理论的权重融合方法能够获得更为合理的综合权重,提出的改进模型能够较好地应用于岩爆倾向性预测工作中。

Prediction of rock burst tendency is one of the basic tasks of disaster prevention and reduction in underground engineering. In view of the existing mathematical models, there are some shortages in the necessary inspection process determining the comprehensive weight of the rock burst index, and there is low accuracy for predicting the rock burst. An improved cloud model for predicting rock bursts is proposed. The improved model is fused with the index weight through cloud atomization conditions in the cloud theory. And the comprehensive weight of the index after the test is obtained. By modifying the standard cloud model and generating the hierarchical integrated cloud by comprehensive cloud algorithm, the deficiencies that the standard cloud model is too sensitive to the average grade range are made up. A number of rock burst examples are used to verify the proposed model. The results show that a more reasonable comprehensive weight can be obtained using the weight fusion method based on the cloud theory. The improved model can be well applied to the prediction of rock burst tendency.