宁波与中东欧贸易规模和贸易潜力的实证研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的估计

"一带一路"倡议的提出为宁波与中东欧的双边贸易合作迎来了新的发展契机。在"一带一路"背景下,如何提升进出口贸易规模和贸易潜力,是宁波经济发展面临的重要问题。本文选取了2007-2016年的面板数据,在分析宁波与中东欧16国(地区)进出口贸易现状、竞争性和互补性之后,基于随机前沿引力模型研究了宁波与中东欧贸易效率和潜力及其影响因素。研究认为,宁波与中东欧的互补性在逐年加大,有很大的贸易潜力,贸易效率不断上升,而贸易非效率因素是造成实际贸易规模和贸易潜力差异的主要因素。在此基础上,本文提出了加强宁波与中东欧国家(地区)在工业产品领域的双边贸易合作,不断开发新贸易伙伴的潜力,加强优势产业的合作等对策建议。

The ＂One Belt And One Road＂ strategy has ushered in a new development opportunity for the bilateral trade cooperation between Ningbo and Central and Eastern Europe. Under the background of One Belt And One Road, how to improve the scale of import and export trade and the potential of trade is an important issue in Ningbo＇s economic development.This paper selects the panel data from 2007 to 2016 to analyze the status quo, competitiveness and complementarity of the import and export trade between Ningbo and Central and Eastern Europe Countries, and then studies the trade efficiency and potential of Ningbo and Central and Eastern Europe Countries based on the stochastic frontier gravitation model. The study suggests that the complementarities of Ningbo and Central and Eastern Europe Countries are increasing year by year with great potential for trade and rising trade effficiency.The inefficient trade is the main factor that causes the difference in actual trade scale and trade potential. On this basis, this paper puts forward the strengthening of Ningbo and Central and Eastern European countries in the field of industrial products of bilateral trade cooperation, to develop the potential of new trading partners, strengthen the cooperation of advantage industry countermeasures and suggestions.