多因素驱动架空线路故障率模型

Multi-drive overhead-line failure rate model

架空线路故障停运将严重影响电力系统的稳定安全运行,建立全面量化内外部影响因素的架空线故障率模型对评估电力系统运行风险起到了至关重要的作用。根据架空线路故障机理,提出了多因素驱动的架空线路故障率模型(Multi-Drive-PHM,MDPHM)。以比例风险模型为基础,基准故障概率函数考虑导线老化,连接函数中的协变量选择设备健康状态、负载率和天气状况,各影响因素与故障率的相关性通过假设检验验证。最后采用Levenberg-Marquardt法进行模型的参数估计。算例分析定量展现了各因素对架空线路故障率的影响,验证了模型的有效性。

The outage of overhead-lines seriously affects the stability of power system operation, so the establishment of overhead-lines＇ failure rate model considering internal and external factors is the key to the risk assessment of power system operation. Based on the failure mechanism of overhead lines, this paper proposes the Multi-Drive-PHM（MDPHM）. This model is based on the Proportional Hazard Model（PHM）. The model＇s baseline hazard function adopts aging failure model and the covariates of connected function include the equipment health status, load rate and weather conditions, and the correlations between these covariates and the failure rate are calculated through the testing statistical hypotheses. The Levenberg-Marquardt method is used to estimate the parameters of this model in the final step. The case study quantitatively shows the impact of different factors on the overhead-line failure rate, verifying the validity of this model.