中国高技术制造业创新景气指数研究——基于主成分法

Research on Climate Index of Chinese High-tech Manufacturing Industry Innovation: Based on Principal Components Analysis

以创新周期理论为研究基础,运用主成分分析法,构造中国高技术制造业创新景气指数。指数结果显示,中国高技术制造业创新景气状态在近20年先后经历剧烈波动期、平稳振动期以及趋势向上期,景气值有望在2018年达到历史最高位,从繁荣转向低迷的周期转折点可能出现在2020年。认为基于主成分法的高技术制造业创新景气指数能有效地描述中国高技术制造业创新发展周期状况和波动态势,准确地筛选出R&D经费内部支出占主营业务收入比重增速、技术引进经费支出增速等关键指标因素,为中国政府调整产业扶持政策、优化创新资源供给提供参考。

Based on innovation cycle theory, Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation climate index was built by using principal components analysis. The results show that Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation climate state has experienced three long cycles in recent twenty years, including vigorous fluctuation period、stationary vibration period and trend-rise period; the climate index would probably reach its highest level by 2018, and the cycle turning point would probably arrive by 2020. As the final conclusion, the climate index could reflect the cyclical status and fluctuation trend of Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation, and sift out some critical factors, such as the growth of RD internal expenditure accounted for the proportion of the main business income and the growth of technology import expenditure, which would provide beneficial references for Chinese government to adjust industry-supporting policy and configure innovation resources effectively.