中国对外直接投资的就业效应——基于扩展边际与集约边际视角的分析

Impact of China's Outward FDI on Employment: An Analysis based on the Perspectives of Extensive Margin and Intensive Margin

在近年来反全球化的声音渐起的背景下,对外直接投资对母国就业的影响是替代效应还是促进效应成为关注的重点。本文从二元边际的视角分析对外投资扩展边际和集约边际方式对母国就业影响的机理,并利用2004-2014年中国30个省域的数据进行检验。研究表明:我国对外直接投资的集约边际对我国的就业并没有创造效应,这种就业创造效应来自扩展边际,其中,扩展边际对我国制造业就业的促进作用大于服务业,对中高技能制造业、低技能服务业的就业创造效应更大;借助中介效应分析法的影响渠道分析同时发现劳动生产率、出口和投资是我国扩展边际的投资扩张对就业产生影响的三个重要传导路径,扩展边际可以通过促进本国劳动力生产率的提高、出口的增加、投资的增加进而促进就业。以上结论对于引导我国企业进行海外扩张的路径选择具有一定的政策含义。

With the rising voice of anti-globalization recently, whether the effect of outward FDI on domestic employment is a substitution effect or a promotion effect has become a focus of attention. The paper analyzes the impact mecha-nisms from the extensive investment margin to the intensive investment margin on domestic employment based on the perspective of dual margin, and uses data from China＇s 30 provinces from 2004 to 2014 to carry out empirical tests. The results show that the intensive margin of China＇s outward FDI has no significantly positive impact on domestic employment, and this employment promotion effect does come from the extensive margin, the extensive investment margin plays a greater role in promoting employment in manufacturing industry than in service industry, and such employment promotion effect is higher in medium-high skilled manufacturing and low-skilled service industry; analysis of influence channel by means of intermediary effect analysis, we can also find that labor productivity, export and investment are three important transmission paths for the extensive investment margin to influence employment, in particular, by raising domestic labor productivity, promoting exports and increasing investment, the extensive investment margin can create more job opportunities. The above conclusions have rich policy implications for path selection of enterprise to expand overseas.