光伏发电功率预测斜面辐射组合模型的评估研究

Evaluation study on combination models of solar irradiance on inclined surfaces in the PV power forecasting

光伏发电功率预测以准确、可靠的倾斜面太阳辐射量数据为基础。文章通过斜面辐射组合模型的计算,得到倾斜面太阳辐射量。为了分析不同辐射组合模型对光伏发电功率预测结果的影响,建立光伏发电功率预测模型,同时,选取3种典型直散分离模型和4种斜面辐射模型进行理论分析,并将上述模型分别组成12种斜面辐射组合模型,进行光伏发电功率预测。研究结果表明:含Liu-Jordan模型的组合模型的功率预测值与实测值更吻合,其中,Erbs+Liu-Jordan组合模型预测结果的准确度最高;阴雨天,利用King模型进行计算时,会发生地面反射辐射值估计结果偏高的现象,导致预测结果的准确性较低。

The accurate and reliable PV array solar irradiance data is the basis of PV power forecasting. In this paper, the PV array solar irradiance data is obtained by the calculation of the combination of model of solar irradiance on inclined surfaces. To analyze the effect different combination models on PV power forecasting results, the PV forecasting model was established.Meanwhile, we explored 12 combination models by combining three decomposition models with four transposition models, which were used to predict the PV power. The results show that combinations which included the Liu-Jordan transposition model agreed better with the measured data, and Erbs＋Liu-Jordan model had higher forecasting accuracy. The estimation result of ground reflected irradiance is high when using the King combination model, and the forecasting result showed low accuracy.