农业机械化对农业产业集聚的支撑研究

An Empirical Research on Contribution of Agricultural Mechanization to Agro-industrial Agglomeration

为了分析农业机械化对区域间农业产业集聚的支撑与其两者之间的影响关系,研究运用格兰杰因果检验的方法对两者1996-2015年的评价指数进行了因果分析。从一般相关分析结果来看,两者的相关系数为0.843 8;但从因果检验结果来看,短期两者之间没有显著的因果关系,而从长期而言农机化是农业产业集聚的原因。目前,中国农业的区域不均匀分布仍呈缓慢上升趋势,今后可从改善农机化的区域投资力度等方面对其进行改善。

In order to analyze the relation between agriculture mechanization and agro-industrial agglomeration in China,the article constructed the two indexes of comprehensive evaluation on temporal change in 1996-2015 to make the granger causal relation test.The results show that： firstly,from the general correlation analysis results,the correlation coefficient of the two is 0.8438; secondly,there is little interactional relationship between agriculture mechanization and agro-industrial agglomeration in the short run; thirdly,agricultural mechanization is the reason of agro-industrial agglomeration in the long run.At present,the uneven distribution of agricultural regions in China is still slowly rising,which can be improved in the future from improving the regional investment in agricultural mechanization.