基于SPSS软件的全国烟花爆竹事故统计分析与预测

Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Nationwide Fireworks Incidents Based on SPSS

对2006—2015年间全国烟花爆竹事故数据进行统计整理,运用SPSS软件按照事故发生地域进行聚类分析,得到了3类集群,并以这些符合时间序列标准的统计数据为依据,运用Winter指数平滑法预测2016—2018年间各季度的事故起数,预测我国的烟花爆竹事故起数将在波动中进一步减少。

The fireworks incidents related data during years 2006- 2015 nationwide were sorted out in statistics, 3 categories of cluster were obtained through cluster analysis with SPSS software by the geographical region where the incident occurred, and the incident quantity of each quarter during the years of 2016-2018 was estimated by Winter Exponential Smoothing according to these statistical data complying with the standard time series. The prediction results showed that the occurrence of fireworks incident in China will be further reduced with fluctuation.