基于云重心评判法的海上交通安全态势评估模型

Maritime Traffic Safety Situation Assessment Based on Cloud Gravity Center Evaluation Method

海上交通安全态势评估可以帮助管理者找出安全隐患,做出科学决策,防止和减少事故的发生。本文针对我国海上交通安全形势日益严峻,而海上交通安全态势评估研究过少的现状,引入安全态势评估相关概念。根据态势评估三层功能构建海上交通安全态势评估的研究框架,并以此为出发点,在综合分析安全影响因素的基础上,建立海上交通安全态势评估指标体系,然后首次提出采用云重心评判法对海上交通安全态势进行评估。最后,结合实例验证了该方法在海上交通安全态势评估中的可行性和有效性。

An assessment of maritime traffic safety situation can help managers to identify potential safety hazards,make scientific decisions to prevent and reduce the occurrence of accidents.As for the situation of maritime traffic safety in China is becoming increasingly serious,and the situation of marine traffic safety assessment of the problem is poor,this paper introduces the relevant concepts of safety situation assessment,constructs the research framework based on the three-level assessment of situation assessment.And as a starting point,on the basis of comprehensive analyzing the safety influence factors,establishes the marine traffic safety situation assessment index system.And then put forward cloud gravity center evaluation method for the first time for assessment the situation of maritime traffic safety.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated by a case study on maritime traffic safety situation assessment.