东北地区玉米适应气候变化措施对生产潜力的影响

Impacts of adaptive measures to climate changes on climatic potential productivity of maize in northeast China

为探求东北玉米未来如何更好地适应气候变化,本研究采用抗逆品种和推迟播种期两种适应措施,结合区域气候模式模拟的2010—2099年间RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种浓度路径逐日气象资料,分析了不同气候变化情景下东北玉米适应措施的生产潜力变化.结果表明:2010—2099年间,东北区玉米气候生产潜力的空间分布特征基本为东南向西北减小的趋势,RCP4.5情景下东北玉米生产潜力高于RCP8.5情景,且RCP8.5情景出现极低值年份明显多于RCP4.5情景.所有抗逆品种的玉米生产潜力均高于原有品种,在RCP4.5情景下,耐高温品种的玉米生产潜力更高,在RCP8.5情景下,耐旱品种表现更好,双耐(耐高温、耐旱)品种的玉米生产潜力在2种气候变化情景下均最高.RCP4.5情景下,推迟播种均出现增产情况,其中,推迟30~40 d播种的玉米增产率达到最大;RCP8.5情景下,部分地区出现减产情况.说明适当推迟播种期有利于提高玉米气候生产潜力,但地区间存在差异.

To understand how would the maize production in northeast China adapt to climate change,we adopted two strategies,inclduing using stress resistant varieties and delayed sowing date,combined with the daily meteorological data of RCP4. 5 scenario and RCP8. 5 scenario from2010 to 2099 simulated by regional climatic model,to analyze the changes of climatic potential productivity of maize under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that in 2010-2099,the spatial characteristics of climatic potential productivity of maize in northeast China decreased from southeast to northwest. The climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 scenario was higher than that under RCP8.5 scenario,while years with the lowest values under RCP8.5 scenario was more than that under RCP4. 5 scenario. The climatic potential productivity for stress resistant varieties of maize was higher than the original varieties. Under RCP4.5 scenario,the heat resistant variety had higher productivity. Under RCP8.5 scenario,the drought resistant variety performed better. The variety with both heat and drought resistance characters achieved the highest productivity under both scenarios. Under RCP4.5 scenario,yield increased with postponed sowing,with 30-40 days delay achieving the highest yield. Under RCP8. 5 scenario,yield reduction occurred in some areas. Such a result indicated that the appropriate delay in sowing is conducive to improve the maize productivity,with differences among regions.