准入制度改革、同业竞争与银行业市场进入决策机制升级

Access Regulation Reform,Competition in the Same Industry and Upgradation of Decision-making Mechanism on Banking Market-oriented Entry

为了研究我国银行业市场准入制度改革对银行市场进入决策机制的影响和检验银行间差异化竞争战略的实施成效,本文基于中小股份制商业银行分支数据构建静态离散博弈的均衡结构模型还原银行市场进入过程中的战略互动,并重点考察不同垄断地位银行间非对称的竞争壁垒效应。鉴于多重Nash均衡引起的估计不一致问题,分别使用条件矩不等式和子样本模拟技术识别与估计模型参数的置信区间,并进一步设计反事实分析和分类比较分析。研究发现,我国银行业准入制度放松显著推动了市场进入决策机制升级,使其不仅取决于银行内部优势和市场区位,也受制于对手决策及其构建的品牌、规模经济等非对称竞争壁垒;银行边际利润实现从第二产业向第三产业转移,当前银行业的"壁龛市场"战略占优于"跟随"战略。

In order to study the impact of the access regulation reform on the decision-making mechanism of banking market entry and to test the effectiveness of the inter-bank differentiated competition strategy,based on the branch data of small and medium-sized commercial bank,this paper builds the balanced structural model of the static discrete gaming to restore the strategic interaction in the process of entering the banking market and focuses on the effects of the asymmetric competition barriers among the different monopoly banks. In order to solve the issues of estimation inconsistency caused by multiple Nash equilibrium,the conditional moment inequality and sub-sample simulation technique are applied to identify and estimate the confidence interval of the parameters,and furthermore the counterfactual analysis and the comparative analysis of classification are designed and used. It finds that easing the banking access regulations has significantly upgraded the decisionmaking mechanism on market-oriented access,which not only depends on the bank＇ s internal advantages and market locations,but also is affected by the asymmetric competition barriers,such as the decisions by their competitors and the brands,as well as scale of economy built. The banking marginal profits are transferred from the secondary to the tertiary industry and the ＂niche market＂strategy is better than ＂following＂strategy in the current banking industry.