长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

THE TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF POPULATION AGEING AND ITS CLASSIFICATION IN CHANGCHUN

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数(CAI),并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明:(1)长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的"中心—边缘"分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。(2)长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。

This paper presented a new Composite Ageing Index that can be used to provide a better under- standing of the geography of ageing according to three key dimensions： numeric ageing, structural ageing, and ageing population density. This indicator, combined with the multi-scale spatial autocorrelation analysis used in this study, can arguably rectify the defects of previous studies that have used only one or two indica- tors, or conducted their analysis only at a single spatial scale to study the changing geography of ageing. The results show that： ① the geography of ageing in Changchun shows an obvious trend of spatial diffusion to its suburbs, there is an obvious trend of elderly people＇s enmasse migration to the suburbs. The hot spot area moved to the south and east, while, cold spot area moved to the east, which indicated that there is an obvious trend of population ageing in the eastern and southern parts of suburbs in Changchun during 2000-2010. ② Using the new classification criterion, the ageing mechanism of each community was revealed. The geogra- phy of ageing in Changchun can be divided into four types, named ageing with depopulation, ageing with ac- cumulation, ageing in place and non-ageing. Most of the communities in traditional inner core or rural pe- riphery are ageing rapidly with the massive out-migration of young people; alongside this, the city＇s suburbs have experienced explosive growth in their elderly population, while, the demographic structure in most of communities are still young. The geography of ageing in Changchun also shows a distinctive ＇sandwich struc- ture＇, where the city centre and rural periphery have an older demographic structure than the suburbs with the out-migration of the non-elderly.