地方债务、区域差异与经济增长--基于中国地级市数据的验证

Local Debts,Regional Disparity and Economic Growth:An Empirical Study Based on China's Prefecture-Level Data

基于典型事实和理论分析,并利用2004-2015年中国地级市数据,本文实证检验了地方政府债务对地区经济增长的影响。研究发现:(1)地方政府债务对经济增长的影响呈现倒U型。债务水平未突破债务平衡点时,地方政府举债的正面作用(弥补财力不足、完善基础设施等)占优,将促进经济增长;一旦债务水平超过债务平衡点,地方债务将抑制经济增长。上述发现与利用跨国数据的既有文献所得结论一致。(2)有别于已有研究,我们还发现地方政府债务对经济增长的影响呈现明显的区域差异。相比于经济较发达的东部地区,中西部和东北地区的债务平衡点较低,地方政府债务规模的持续膨胀在这些地区更易对经济增长产生负面效应。经济发展水平、财政状况、产业结构、房地产业发展状况以及是否属于城市群等可以解释东部地区较高的债务耐受性。本文的研究发现为深刻认识中国的地方政府债务问题和合理制定相关政策提供了新的经验证据。

Based on the typical facts and the theoretical analysis, using of prefecture data from 2004 to 2015, this paper examines the impact of local debts on the regional economic growth. The study found that ： （ 1 ） Local debts have an inverse U effect on economic growth. When the level of debt does not break the balance of debt, the positive role of local debts will lead to economic growth （ by making up for the lack of financial resources or improving infrastructure）. Once the debt level exceeds the debt balance, the local debts will curb economic growth. The findings are consistent with those obtained from existing literature on transnational data. （2） Different from the existing research, we also found that local debts have obvious regional differences in the impact on economic growth. Compared to the economically developed eastern region, the debt balance of the Midwest and Northeast is low, and the scale of local debts continued expansion in these areas are more likely to have a negative effect on economic growth. Factors like level economic development, fiscal condition, industrial structure, level of real estate development and urban agglomeration can explain why the eastern region has a higher balance of debt. The findings of this study provide new empirical evidence for understanding China＇s local government debt problems and formulating relevant policies reasonably.