中国高等教育发展影响因素的空间计量分析

Analysis on the Influence Factors of China's Higher Education Development from a Spatial Econometric Perspective

采用证实性空间数据分析方法(CSDA)从经济政策、人口因素和交通区位三个维度分析中国高等教育发展的空间格局及相关影响因素,研究结果表明:在经济政策维度和交通区位维度中,空间误差模型(SEM)的拟合优度最佳,说明中国高等教育的空间正相关性是随机误差冲出的结果,其中教育固定资产投资、第三产业的发展、区域交通和地理因素对高等教育的发展具有显著的影响。在人口因素维度中,空间滞后模型(SLM)的拟合优度比较理想,高等教育的空间依赖性是由于空间溢出或空间扩散效应引起的,人口素质和教育行业从业人数是影响高等教育发展的重要因素。

The spatial pattern of the development of higher education and the influencing factors were discussed from the three dimensions of economic policy, population factor and traffic location by using the spatial data analysis method （CSDA）. The results show that the spatial error model （SEM） is the best in the economic policy dimension and the traffic location dimension, which indicates that the spatial positive correlation of China＇ s higher education is the result of random error; education investment in fixed assets, the development of the tertiary industry, regional transportation and geographical factors have a significant impact on higher education.In the dimension of population factors, the goodness of fit of the spatial lag model （SLM） is ideal, and the spatial dependence of higher education is caused by spatial spillover or spatial diffusion effects. And population population quality and the number of employees in education industry are important factors that influence the development of higher education.