高速铁路对粤桂地区经济影响的研究——基于双重差分计量经济模型的实证分析

Study on the Economic Impact of High-speed Railway on Guangdong and Guangxi——The Empirical Analysis Based on DID Econometric Model

文章采用双重差分(DID)计量经济模型研究高速铁路的开通对粤桂地区人均GDP、产业结构升级、城乡收入差距和城镇化水平的影响。研究结果表明:高铁的开通可以促进经济增长,提高地区人均GDP水平;高铁的开通对第三产业影响较小,对第二产业的影响大于对第三产业的影响;高铁的开通加速了生产要素在城乡之间的流动,缩小了城乡收入差距;高铁的开通疏散人口从经济发达地区流向经济欠发达地区,使城市布局更均衡合理;高铁的开通对经济的影响因粤桂地区经济发达程度不同而表现出差异。

This paper uses difference-in-differences model to study the impact of the opening of the high-speed railway on GDP per capita, upgrading of industrial structure, urban-rural income gap and urbanization level in Guangdong and Guangxi. Research indicates that the opening of the high-speed railway is conducive to promoting economic development and raising the level of per capita GDP in the region. The opening of the high-speed railway has little impact on the tertiary industry, and has a greater impact on the secondary industry than on the tertiary industry. The opening of high-speed railway has accelerated the flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. The opening of high-speed railway has made the population flow from economically developed areas to economically underdeveloped areas, make the layout of the city more balanced and reasonable. Moreover, the impact of the opening of high-speed railway has shown a difference due to the different degrees of economic development in the Guangdong and Guangxi.